[ 2021-02-18 ]

Covid infections dropping fast across England, study shows

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Coronavirus infections are falling fast across
England, the latest large survey has found, with
positive tests now less than one-third the level
reported three weeks ago.

According to the React-1 study led by Imperial
College London and published on Thursday, just
0.51 per cent of the randomly selected sample of
85,400 volunteers was infected between February 4
and 13, compared with 1.57 per cent between
January 6 and 22.

“It’s very reassuring to see this speed of
decline,” said Prof Steven Riley of Imperial
College. “It is better than we had expected.”

However, the researchers found no evidence that
vaccination was having an effect on infection. The
decline in positive swab tests was no steeper in
people over 65, who have received the vast
majority of vaccinations so far, than in younger
age groups.

Prof Paul Elliott, React-1 director, said:
“These encouraging results show that lockdown
measures are effectively bringing infections down.
It’s reassuring that the reduction in numbers of
infections occurred in all ages and in most
regions across the country.”

The fall has been steepest in London, from 2.83 in
the last survey to 0.54 per cent. North East
England had the smallest decline, from 1.22 to
0.82 per cent, underlining concerns raised in
other research of regional variations in the rate
of decline across the country.


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The React-1 results followed pleas by senior
scientists on Wednesday for the government to be
led by data rather than dates, ahead of Boris
Johnson’s announcement on lifting coronavirus
lockdown restrictions next week. 

Prof Angela McLean, chief scientific adviser at
the Ministry of Defence, told MPs on the science
and technology committee that the vaccine rollout
was a cause for optimism, but added that it was
important to take a cautious approach to easing
restrictions.

“Let’s use data not dates,” she said. “The
important thing is to watch what is happening in
the real world and do our best to make judgments
properly in real time about whether we are going
too fast or need to pause before taking the next
step.” 

The prime minister has said he will announce a
“road map” for lifting restrictions on
February 22, with schools expected to be the first
to reopen from March 8. 

Speaking during a visit to a vaccination centre in
south Wales on Wednesday, Johnson stressed that
the government would be adopting a “prudent”
approach to removing coronavirus measures. 

“We’ll be setting out what we can on Monday
about the way ahead and it’ll be based firmly on
a cautious and prudent approach to coming out of
lockdown in such a way to be irreversible,” he
said. “We want to be going one way from now on,
based on the incredible vaccination rollout that
you’re seeing in Cwmbran.”

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Mark Woolhouse, professor at Edinburgh university
and a member of the government’s Scientific
Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling, told MPs on
the science committee that the vaccine rollout was
“exceeding expectations”.

“The actual performance of the vaccine, the
transmission blocking potential is key but so of
course is its actual ability to protect against
death and disease and keep people out of
hospital?.?.?.?all those numbers are looking
really good,” he said. 

He also argued that the government may be in a
position to lift restrictions earlier than
planned, adding: “If you’re driven by data and
not the dates, right now you should be looking at
early unlocking because the data are so good.”

However, McLean warned that information relating
to the impact of vaccines on transmission was
still unclear. “The number one thing we don’t
know about vaccines still is this issue of how
infectious you are if you catch Covid even if you
have been vaccinated,” she said.

Source - FT, UK

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