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Friday 20 October 2017

2017-10-08

[I] Ellen Johnson Sirleaf Touts Legacy As She Prepares To Step Down  

2017-04-20

[I] Drug given to pregnant women causes 'serious malformations'

2017-01-23

[I] $11m Missing From The Gambia's State Coffers After Jammeh Exile

2016-11-16

[I] Brexit vote not legally binding

2016-11-15

[I] ‘Trump dump’ bill hits $1.2trn
[I] Anti-Trump protests rage on after attackers are charged
[I] Strategy chief is branded a racist, fascist misogynist

2016-11-14

[I] ‘Prediction professor’ who called Trump’s big win also said Trump will be impeac

2016-11-12

[I] I won’t be surprised if Trump is impeached – Kweku Baako

2016-11-11

[I] Statisticians put value of household chores through the wash

2016-11-10

[I] Hillary Clinton lost the election but is winning the popular vote
[I] Thousands take to the streets to protest Trump win
[I] Hillary Clinton delivers painful concession speech
[I] The world comes to terms with President-elect Donald Trump

2016-11-08

[I] The world’s attention on USA elections

2016-10-31

[I] Woman buys house by getting 20 boyfriends to get her an iPhone

2016-09-28

[I] Counterfeit drugs: 'People are dying every day'

2016-09-26

[I] Syria conflict: US and UK speeches 'unacceptable' - Russia

2016-09-01

[I] Gabon Parliament Set On Fire After Disputed Elections

2016-08-05

[I] I have stolen only four cars this year – Muslim Cleric

2016-03-31

[I] SA court rules Zuma breached constitution

2016-03-15

[I] Nigerian oil revenues of $16bn 'missing'

2016-01-05

[I] Tanzanian President forces officials to sign public integrity pledge

2015-12-30

[I] Former Banker sworn in as Burkina Faso President

2015-12-28

[I] Man sentenced to death by hanging in Malaysia for drug trafficking

2015-12-18

[I] Saudi Arabia to behead 15- year- old boy for attending protest

2015-12-10

[I] World running out of oil storage space

2015-12-08

[I] Oil price could hit $20 as Opec ditches quotas
[I] ‘Tube attacker had mental health issues’

2015-11-23

[I] Tragic baby 'cooked alive'

2015-07-26

[I] Lord resigns and faces police probe

2015-05-25

[I] Hackers leave Uber users billed for fake cab rides
[I] Greece cannot pay IMF, says minister

2015-05-24

[I] US Governor paves way for rise in interest rates
[I] Catholic Church left reeling by Ireland’s stunning vote for gay marriage
[I] Beautiful Mind maths virtuoso John Nash killed in taxi crash

2015-04-29

[I] Nigeria's army 'rescues 200 girls from Boko Haram stronghold'

2015-04-28

[I] Apple to give its investors a $70 billion golden payday
[I] Nepal quake toll could reach 7,000

2015-04-24

[I] Deutsche Bank pays record $2.5bn fine for Libor manipulation
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International

[ 2016-11-14 ]

‘Prediction professor’ who called Trump’s big win also said Trump will be impeac
Few prognosticators predicted a Donald Trump
victory ahead of Tuesday night. Polls showed
Hillary Clinton comfortably ahead, and much of
America (chiefly the media) failed to anticipate
the wave of pro-Trump support that propelled him
to victory.

But a Washington, D.C.-based professor insisted
that Trump was lined up for a win — based on the
idea that elections are “primarily a reflection on
the performance of the party in power.”

Allan Lichtman uses a historically based system of
what he calls “keys” to predict election results
ahead of time. The keys are explained in-depth in
Lichtman’s book, “Predicting the Next President:
The Keys to the White House 2016.” In our
conversations in September and October, he
outlined how President Obama's second term set the
Democrats up for a tight race, and his keys tipped
the balance in Trump's favor, even if just
barely.

At the end of our September conversation, Lichtman
made another call: that if elected, Trump would
eventually be impeached by a Republican Congress
that would prefer a President Mike Pence — someone
whom establishment Republicans know and trust.

“I'm going to make another prediction,” he said.
“This one is not based on a system; it's just my
gut. They don't want Trump as president, because
they can't control him. He's unpredictable. They'd
love to have Pence — an absolutely down-the-line,
conservative, controllable Republican. And I'm
quite certain Trump will give someone grounds for
impeachment, either by doing something that
endangers national security or because it helps
his pocketbook.”

So while Republican voters clearly came home
before Nov. 8 — network exit polls show 90 percent
of GOP voters cast ballots for Trump — it's less
clear that the party leadership is on board.
(Lichtman actually isn't the only person to
predict a Trump impeachment; this morning, the New
York Times's David Brooks suggested that a Trump
impeachment or resignation was “probably” in the
cards sometime within the next year.)

It's worth noting that Lichtman's predictions use
very different methods than pollsters and
data-based prognosticators. Some statisticians
take issue with the structure of his system, a set
of 13 true/false questions, saying that the binary
nature of his keys leads to what's called
“overfitting,” which is basically creating a
system that fits the data but has little
statistical significance.

But Lichtman counters by saying that the system
has correctly predicted every election since 1984
(specifically, his predictions have picked the
next president correctly in all of those elections
but 2000, when he picked Al Gore, who won the
popular vote). And Lichtman has his own criticism
of data-based predictions.

“Polls are not predictors,” he said Friday in an
email. “They are snapshots that simulate an
election. They are abused and misused as
predictors. Even the analysis of polls by Nate
Silver and others which claimed a probable Clinton
victory with from more than 70 percent to 99
percent certainty are mere compilations that are
no better than the underlying polls.”

And he has particular disdain for prediction
systems that assign a likelihood of winning.

“For all his acclaim, Nate Silver is only a clerk,
not a scientific analyst,” Lichtman said.

As for the real reason for Trump's win, Lichtman
says the blame can't be put on Hillary Clinton or
her campaign — rather, he says, it was decided by
the larger forces that shape American politics.

“The Democrats cannot rebuild by pointing fingers
at Hillary Clinton and her campaign, which as the
Keys demonstrated, were not the root cause of her
defeat,” he said. “The Democrats can rehabilitate
themselves only by offering an inspiring
progressive alternative to Republican policies and
building a grass-roots movement.”

Source - Washington Post



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