[ 2016-10-23 ]

Fitch Predicts NPP Victory, But Warns Of Re-Run
A report by Fitch Group, a UK-based research
company, has predicted that the flagbearer of the
New Patriotic Party, Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo,
will win the December 7 presidential election.

The report, however, envisages that his eventual
declaration as the president-elect will be made
after a run-off.

This comes just a day after the Economic
Intelligence issued a similar report, predicting a
one-touch victory for the NPP flagbearer, as well
as a win of majority of the seats in Parliament.

The Fitch report makes reference to a recent
online poll by management consultancy, Goodman
AMC, which puts Nana Akufo-Addo at 49%, with
President Mahama of the ruling National Democratic
Congress trailing with 44%, thus making it
impossible for the incumbent to secure the
50%-plus-one-vote needed to avoid a second-round
run-off.

The report predicts that the NPP flagbearer will
likely attract the remainder of the opposition
vote in the second round and take the NPP to power
for the first time since 2008.

The report cited recent developments in the
country, including the erratic power supply, known
as "Dumsor", and high cost of living as some of
the determining factors that would influence
Ghanaians into voting for the Nana Akufo-Addo.

According to Fitch, apart from the "Dumsor" menace
being a deciding factor, the recent strikes by
workers of the Electricity Company of Ghana over
the NDC government's plans to privatize the
state-run company would also be a key factor.

"As power shortages are a tangible hardship felt
by households every day, we expect that this will
be the primary concern of voters. In the Goodman
AMC poll, 43% of respondents cited these as a
primary concern," the report said.

The report added: "Economic troubles will play in
opposition's favour. Over the past several years
,the Ghanaian economy has suffered a number of
macroeconomic setbacks, with real GDP growth
slowing from an average 9.7% over the four years
from 2010 to 2013, to just 3.8% from 2014 to 2016
and we expect that this will also support the
opposition at the polls.

Ghana's budget and current account deficits
widened, the currency sold off and inflation
skyrocketed, forcing the government to go to the
IMF for assistance in late 2014. Finance minister
Seth Terkper has insisted in recent media
statements that this was solely the fault of a
slump in commodity prices."

Another development, the report noted, that would
play in NPP's favour would be the third programme
review under the IMF, which forced the NDC
government to push back a proposed Eurobond
issuance.

The Fitch report makes reference to the fact that
Nana Akufo-Addo had assured that the next NPP
government would respect any agreement with the
IMF and support investor confidence, although he
has said that he would renegotiate the terms if
necessary.

"On August 2, parliament passed a bill allowing
the government to borrow up to 5% of the previous
year's revenues from the central bank. This is
less than the 10% previously allowed, but the IMF
had made it a condition of its lending that the
facility was removed entirely.

In the wake of the bill's passing, investor fears
over the potential that Ghana would fail its
review was a likely reason for required yields on
the proposed Eurobond jumping," the report notes.

Source - Daily Statesman

... go Back