[ 2012-08-03 ]

My departing advice on how to save Syria - Kofi Annan
Aleppo is under siege and the prospect of the loss
of thousands more civilian lives in Syria is very
high. The UN has condemned the further descent to
civil war but the fighting goes on with no sign of
relief for Syrians. Jihadist elements have been
drawn into the conflict. There is also high
concern for the security of Syria’s chemical and
biological weapons. The international community
has seemed strikingly powerless in its attempts to
influence the brutal course of events – but this
is by no means inevitable.

While the Security Council is trapped in
stalemate, so too is Syria. The government has
attempted to suppress, through extreme violence, a
popular and widespread movement that, after 40
years of dictatorship, has decided it can no
longer be intimidated. The result has been an
increasing loss of control on the ground, and the
opposition has turned to its own military campaign
to fight back. Yet, it remains unclear how the
government can be brought down through force
alone.

However there is also a political impasse. A mass
movement, born in the demand for civil and
political rights and the empowerment of voices for
change, emerged in Syria after March 2011. But,
for all the extraordinary courage that it took for
the protesters to march each day in the face of
escalating violence by the government, this did
not become a movement that bridged Syria’s
communal divisions. Opportunities to overcome this
were then lost in increasing violence.

Military means alone will not end the crisis.
Similarly, a political agenda that is neither
inclusive nor comprehensive will fail. The
distribution of force and the divisions in Syrian
society are such that only a serious negotiated
political transition can hope to end the
repressive rule of the past and avoid a future
descent into a vengeful sectarian war.

For a challenge as great as this, only a united
international community can compel both sides to
engage in a peaceful political transition. But a
political process is difficult, if not impossible,
while all sides – within and without Syria – see
opportunity to advance their narrow agendas by
military means. International division means
support for proxy agendas and the fuelling of
violent competition on the ground.

This is why I have consistently sought to help the
international community to work together to end
this destructive dynamic and to focus the minds of
the parties on the ground into engaging in a
political process. Early in my mandate we won
international backing for this, with Security
Council resolutions, which authorised UN military
observers to deploy in Syria. After a ceasefire on
April 12, contrary to some claims, the
government’s shelling of civilian communities
stopped, demonstrating the impact this unity could
have.

Sustained international support did not follow,
however. The ceasefire quickly unravelled and the
government, realising there would be no
consequences if it returned to an overt military
campaign, reverted to using heavy weapons on
towns. In response I sought to re-energise the
drive for unity in June by creating the
international Action Group for Syria, establishing
a framework for a transition to support Syrians’
efforts to move to a transitional governing body
with full executive powers. Transition means a
managed but full change of government – a change
in who leads Syria and how. We left the meeting
believing a Security Council resolution endorsing
the group’s decision was assured – as the first in
a series of measures that would signal a turning
point. But since then, there has been no
follow-through. Instead, there has been
finger-pointing and name-calling in the Security
Council.

There are clear common interests among the
regional and international powers in a managed
political transition. A conflagration threatens an
explosion in the region that could affect the rest
of the world. But it takes leadership to
compromise to overcome the destructive lure of
national rivalries. Joint action requires
bilateral and collective efforts by all countries
with influence over the actors on the ground in
Syria, to press upon the parties that a political
solution is essential.

For Russia, China and Iran this means they must
take concerted efforts to persuade Syria’s
leadership to change course and embrace a
political transition, realising the current
government has lost all legitimacy. A first move
by the government is vital, as its intransigence
and refusal to implement the six-point peace plan
has been the greatest obstacle to any peaceful
political process, ensuring the distrust of the
opposition in proposals for a negotiated
transition.

For the US, UK, France, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and
Qatar this means pressing the opposition to
embrace a fully inclusive political process – that
will include communities and institutions
currently associated with the government. This
also means recognising that the future of Syria
rises and falls on more than the fate of just one
man.

It is clear that President Bashar al-Assad must
leave office. The greater focus, however, must be
on measures and structures to secure a peaceful
long-term transition to avoid a chaotic collapse.
This is the most serious issue. The international
community must shoulder its share of
responsibility.

None of this is possible, however, without genuine
compromise on all sides. The stalemate means that
everyone must shift: the government, opposition,
international as well as regional powers. In this
way, the international community can unlock an
essential condition for a political process – a
united international community, effectively and
actively supportive of a peaceful transition to
legitimate government.

Syria can still be saved from the worst calamity.
But this requires courage and leadership, most of
all from the permanent members of the Security
Council, including from Presidents Putin and
Obama. Is ours an international community that
will act in defence of the most vulnerable of our
world, and make the necessary sacrifices to help?
The coming weeks in Syria will tell.

The writer, a former UN secretary-general and a
Nobel Peace Laureate, resigned on Thursday as
special envoy of the UN and League of Arab States
for Syria.

Source - AFP

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